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In a sign of increasing desperation
on the left, speculation is rife that Barack Obama will kick
Vice-President Joe Biden off his team and replace him with that
perpetual presidential wannabe, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As
Hillary’s fans see it, such a maneuver would bring fat dividends to the
Democratic ticket. The only truly useful role Biden plays in the
administration is that of a lightning rod and a diversion. Next to Mr.
National Embarrassment the President looks like a tower of intelligence
and wisdom, his missteps dwarfed into insignificance by the Niagara
Falls of gaffes the buffoonish VP disgorges with clockwork regularity.
Otherwise Biden’s utility is highly doubtful. The white working class is
not buying his faux regular-guy credentials, while the open war declared
by the administration on the Roman Catholic Church has negated the
Catholic Vice-President’s usefulness as the administration’s liaison to
his church. On top of that, Biden’s personal popularity has been
dropping like a lead balloon (in the latest polls, 42 favorable/45
unfavorable, and a lot worse, 40/54, where it really counts - in the
battleground states). In short, rather than being an asset, the
Vice-President increasingly looks like a liability to his boss and a
serious drag on his campaign.
The Secretary of State, on the other hand, looks like a winner. Hillary
Clinton is hands down the most popular member of the administration,
consistently scoring ratings in the mid-60’s. She has been tirelessly
cross-crossing the world, building up her resume as well as logging
frequent-flyer miles. During the primary season four years ago, she
amassed 18 million votes and beat Obama among white women, seniors and
the middle-class. These voters, never enthusiastic about Barack Obama,
reluctantly voted for him in the general, but two years later wandered
off the reservation and played a prominent part in the thorough drubbing
the voters meted out to the Democrats in the off-year elections. The
thinking of Hillary’s fans among the Democratic strategists is that she
should be able to lure the prodigal sons and daughters back into the
fold.
It is not a given, however, that Obama will draft his erstwhile rival.
As Charles Krauthammer argues astutely, the President’s narcissism will
make it very hard for him to make a move reeking of disloyalty to his
own pick, Joe Biden, which would also call into question his judgment.
More importantly, Obama would be loath to create an impression that he
is desperate and has been reduced to go to Canossa and seek succor from
the Clintons (two for the price of one). Furthermore, the powerful
distaff tandem reportedly keeping Obama firmly under its thumb, his wife
Michelle and his closest confidante and advisor Valerie Jarrett, detest
and hate the Secretary of State and would be aghast at the horrible
prospect of yielding center stage in Washington to their nemesis. But
aside from all that, is Hillary really that formidable? Will her luster
hold up under close scrutiny?
Even some conservatives speak with respect of her diplomatic
achievements. What achievements? It’s pretty clear that the U.S. foreign
policy is run out directly out of the White House, bypassing Foggy
Bottom. Reduced to the part of a gofer, in effect a glorified messenger,
Hillary Clinton can’t point to any initiative she could truly claim as
her own, boast of any success achieved thanks to her diplomatic
adroitness. In fact, she could plausibly argue that she had nothing to
do with the disastrous foreign-policy record of the administration
(please don’t shoot the messenger!) so far unexamined but sure to be
brought to light in the general campaign. But where would it leave her
as an Obama loyalist? On the other hand, defending the administration’
policies in her “area of expertise”, as she would have to do, would
stamp her indelibly with Obama’s ignorance, naiveté and ineptness.
But this would be the least of her troubles. Her high popularity is a
measure of the American people’s disappointment with Obama (they
subconsciously transfer their yearning to respect their government to
the least compromised member of the administration) and a tribute to
their short memory. Once she hits the campaign trail, Hillary’s gaudy
past will become fair game. The Republicans are sure to dredge up her
long rap sheet as the First Lady of Arkansas and later of the United
States. The Whitewater Debacle (a fraudulent land deal gone sour); the
Cattle Futures Caper (a $100,000 bribe handed to Governor Clinton via
his spouse); the White House Travel Agency Affair (an attempt to grab a
few measly positions for her own people by ruining seven innocent
lives); the 900 raw files strong-armed from the FBI obviously as a
blackmail goldmine; the looting of White House furniture; the disastrous
attempt to nationalize health care, that cost the Democrats control of
both chambers of Congress in 1994; the endless string of lies ranging
from silly little fibs to patently ludicrous (one is tempted to say,
Hillary-ous) whoppers, exposing her as an inveterate liar… the list
could go on and on.
Hillary would be revealed as a power-hungry, insanely ambitious, utterly
ruthless and profoundly mendacious woman - a highly unsympathetic figure
devoid of any talents other than an indomitable will and a ready
willingness to stop at nothing, stoop to anything, endure any indignity
(or as JFK would say, pay any price, bear any burden, meet any
hardship…) to further her ambition. It is a tribute to her tenacity and
the deadly efficiency of the Clintons’ political machine (and also, in
all likelihood, those 900 FBI files) that she miraculously managed to
evade hoosegow.
During her tenure as First Lady, Hillary’s public standing always
followed what seems to be an iron law of nature: as soon as she faded
into the background, her rating would go up; no sooner did she force her
way back to the front than her popularity would take a dive. Small
wonder, for who could help shuddering involuntarily at the aura of cold
fury she emanated; watching those pallid eyes blazing with demonic
hatred; hearing those blood-curdling screeches that substituted for
oratorical flourishes or the inane cackling that masqueraded as laughter
in embarrassing situations. And how about the steady stream of
adolescent “I mean’s” and “you know’s” that pepper the conversation of
the “smartest woman in creation”. It is to her near invisibility that
she owes her current popularity. Once she steps into the glare of the
limelight, all those memories will flood back. But she wouldn’t be able
to avoid being front and center in the campaign, throwing verbal bombs
and in general playing attack dog, the traditional role of the VP
candidate. Yet it is precisely the role that she is ill-suited to play.
A campaign overhaul of that magnitude is redolent of flop sweat. Like a
defibrillator shock delivered to the heart in a life-threatening
situation, shaking up the ticket is a desperate measure of last resort
designed to give a jolt to the moribund campaign and infuse it with new
energy. That’s exactly the reason why John McCain decided on such an
unorthodox move in 2008. With his campaign on life support, his totally
unexpected choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate did exactly what it
was supposed to do: it triggered a sharp upsurge of enthusiasm among
conservative voters who had been cool to McCain and gave a new lease on
life to his floundering campaign. But the last thing Obama needs is to
provide evidence that his campaign is dead in the water and badly needs
resuscitation, an admission that the President can’t win on his own. To
a man so full of overweening pride it would be a very bitter pill to
swallow indeed.
But the overriding reason why Obama will probably choose to stay put and
refrain from any dramatic changes is the widely recognized verity that
ultimately people vote for the presidential candidate, not his running
mate. Like a physician obeying the Hippocratic Oath, the VP candidate’
duty, above all, is to do no harm. If he or she can bring some marginal
benefit to the ticket, say boost its chances in the VP’s home state,
it’s a bonus. But other than that, there is little the running mate can
do to help the ticket once the initial buzz of excitement over his
choice dies down (not to mention that if nowhere else, Obama needs no
help in the two states that Hillary could arguably claim as her home
states, New York and Illinois). In a word, if the American people decide
to fire Obama, Hillary Clinton will not be able to save him, the fervent
hopes of her fans notwithstanding.
©V.Volsky |